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Are the polls accurately predicting the outcome of the US presidential election in 2024?


Pollsters face a challenge in accurately predicting election outcomes as they underestimated Donald Trump’s support in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. The American Association for Public Opinion Research reported that the polls leading up to the 2020 election were the most inaccurate in 40 years. Charles Franklin, a polling expert, identified reluctance among Trump supporters to participate in surveys as a key factor contributing to the inaccuracies.

In an effort to better reach these respondents, pollsters are implementing new methods such as email and text outreach in addition to traditional telephone calls. Adjustments are also being made to sampling procedures to reflect the views of voters who may be less inclined to respond to surveys, particularly those who supported Trump in the past.

The 2016 polling errors were partially attributed to oversights in considering voters’ education levels. In response, pollsters are now weighing their data based on the 2020 election results to better capture the sentiments of underrepresented Trump supporters. These changes aim to improve the accuracy of future polls and avoid underestimating support for any candidate.

While these adjustments have been made in light of past errors, their effectiveness will only be known after future elections. Pollsters are hopeful that these new methods and sampling procedures will lead to more accurate and reflective polling results in the future.

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